Trends over the past week were just the way we like them, with average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increasing, and geomagnetic indices lower, compared to the previous seven days.
Why do we like these numbers? When solar flux and sunspot numbers are higher, this increases the likelihood that there will be openings on HF. Lower geomagnetic indices suggest lower absorption.
Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41 to 55.7, and average daily solar flux increased from 98.2 to 106.5. Average daily planetary A index declined from 16.6 to 11.1, while average daily mid-latitude A index went from 10.6 to 8.4.
These comparisons are for the January 7-13 period against the previous seven days.
Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 15, 110 on January 16-18, 105 on January 19-21, 100 on January 22, 105 on January 23-26, 110 on January 27-28, 105 on January 29-31, 110 on February 1-7, then 108, 105 and 100 on February 8-10, 105 on February 11-14, 100 on February 15-18 and 105 on February 19-22.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 15-21, 15 on January 22, 10 on January 23, 5 on January 24-27, then 18, 12 and 8 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 1, then 15, 12 and 8 on February 2-4, 5 on February 5-6, then 6, 15, 12 and 8 on February 7-10, 6 on February 11-13, 5 on February 14-16, 8 on February 17 and 15 on February 18.
F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on January 15, quiet to active January 16, quiet to unsettled January 17, mostly quiet January 18, quiet to active January 19-20, mostly quiet January 21, quiet to active January 22, mostly quiet January 23-24, quiet on January 25, quiet to unsettled January 26, active to disturbed January 27, quiet to active January 28, quiet on January 29-31, quiet to active on February 1-2, quiet to unsettled February 3, quiet on February 4-5, mostly quiet February 6-7, active to disturbed February 8 and quiet to active February 9.
There are a couple of articles about propagation in the February 2016 issue ofQST. Check out “Radio Wave Propagation: How Waves Attenuate With Distance” by Kai Siwiak, KE4PT on page 37, and “Make the Most of Ten Meters” by Steve Ford, WB8IMY on page 83.
Sorry, no reader reports this week.
Have you tried the online version of the VOACAP propagation prediction program? It’s easy to use, and quite versatile. You can drag the endpoints of any path around the map, and the polar display to the right of the map gives you the hour-by-hour outlook for each band. VOACAP uses the predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month to make the predictions, and that number is already incorporated in the predictions here. Check it out athttp://www.voacap.com/prediction.html .
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9Band http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
Click on “Download this file” to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are athttp://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for January 7 through 13 were 57, 80, 84, 73, 41, 29, and 26, with a mean of 55.7. 10.7 cm flux was 103.4, 108.5, 107, 108.9, 108, 105.5, and 104.1, with a mean of 106.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 8, 6, 7, 14, 15, and 14, with a mean of 11.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 6, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 11, with a mean of 8.4.
Source: ARRL
BF-F8HP and Counterfeits: Their differences and how to spot a counterfeit BF-F8HP The BaoFeng BF-F8HP has been an extremely popular entry-level amate... Read more
144MHz 2m Portable Yagi VHF Beam Antenna by M0UKD Read Full Article: Read more
“ESA Astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti, IZ0UDF, Conducts First ARISS School Contact Astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti, IZ0UDF — for now, the sole... Read more
Amateur radio is featured in the publication, ITU Guidelines for national emergency telecommunication plans, published by the International Telecommun... Read more
Full Contest Details 1. Mission, Definitions, and Objectives: 1.1. Mission: Encourage W/VE stations to expand knowledge of DX propagation on th... Read more
Apollo-Soyuz Mission Some absolutely beautiful pictures have been posted on the ARISS SSTV image gallery by schools, educational organizations and ham... Read more
HV0A Sandro VE7NY will be active again from Vatican City, 16 to 19 July 2015 as HV0A. QSL via IK0FVC only direct. VE7NY Ex PA3FBK,I4FBK YO3FBK ,VE3FBK... Read more
“RadioSet-GO, your source for unique, trail friendly QRP radio designs; simple, efficient, portable, and attractive all-in-one low power... Read more
“The CQ World Wide DX Contest Committee is making a concerted effort to crack down on cheating. After disqualifying more than 50 logs from the... Read more
TDMA-Based Dual Mode: VHF 136-174MHz/ UHF400-470MHz. RD-5R has two bands 2m and 70cm. True dual time slot DMR, Tier I & II, compatible with Motoro... Read more
SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: Earth is inside a fast-moving (~600 km/s) stream of solar wind, and this is causing geomagnetic unrest around th... Read more
“ As with all ham stations QRO or QRP, ten percent ofa station?s success in quality QSOs is the equipment and the operator. Ninety percent is th... Read more
Intro Following my previous article on the transmission to the Qatar Oscar 100 satellite with SDR technology (LimeSDR, Adalm pluto) which was dedicate... Read more
This listing is for the Classic version of the DX Commander vertical. Ideally suited to Christmas Presents, Birthday Presents and for those people who... Read more
Icom IC-7200 IF DSP The latest IF DSP technology is employed in the IC-7200. While the IC-7200 is an entry-class transceiver, advanced digital feature... Read more
There were several sunspot appearances this week. Sunspot numbers on April 25-29 were 11, 14, 12, 0 and 24, giving a weekly average of 8.7. Average da... Read more
More
Buyer Alert! Do you know how to spot a counterfeit BF-F8HP?
144MHz 2m Portable Yagi VHF Beam Antenna by M0UKD
ESA Astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti , IZ0UDF, Conducts First ARISS School Contact
ITU Development Sector Publication Highlights Amateur Radio’s Role in Emergency Communication
ARRL DX CW Contest 2015
ARISS Commemoration of the 40th Anniversary of the Joint Apollo-Soyuz Mission SSTV Event: DIploma Offered for Participants
HV0A Vatican City
YouKits HB1B upgrade
CQ WW Contest Committee to Review Past Entries for Evidence of Cheating
Radioddity x Baofeng RD-5R DMR
Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life
The New Carolina Windom By Len Carlson, K4IWL
Transmit digital television signals over Qatar Oscar 100 satellite
DX Commander Premium Build – HF Multi-Band Vertical System
Icom IC-7200 HF/50MHz Transceiver
The K7RA Solar Update
Warning: file_get_contents(https://plusone.google.com/_/+1/fastbutton?url=https%3A%2F%2Fqrznow.com%2Fthe-k7ra-solar-update-5%2F): failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.0 404 Not Found in /home/qrznow/public_html/wp-content/themes/goodnews5/framework/functions/posts_share.php on line 151