Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots returned on October 9 – 12, with sunspot numbers of 24, 26, 15 and 15. No sunspot appeared on October 13, but late on Wednesday, October 14, Spaceweather.com reported a new emerging Solar Cycle 25 spot on our sun’s southeastern limb, and a daily sunspot number of 12. The next day, NOAA reported sunspot numbers of 12 and 14 on October 14 – 15. Prior to October 9 no sunspots appeared for 2 weeks, and at that time we saw a sunspot number of 13 on September 23 and 11 on September 25.
Average daily sunspot number increased from 0 to 13.1, while average daily solar flux went from 71.8 to 73.1.
Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index dropping from 7.1 to 2.7 and middle latitude A index from 6 to 1.9.
Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on October 16 – 17; 72 on October 18 – 31; 70 on November 1 – 7; 73 on November 8 – 10; 72, 71, and 71 on November 11 – 13; 70 on November 14 – 23; 72 on November 24 – 27, and 73 on November 28 – 29.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 16 – 19; 10 on October 20; 8 on October 21 – 23; 16, 38, and 38 on October 24 – 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 – 29; 5 on October 30 – November 6; 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 – 15; 10, 15, and 18 on November 16 – 18; 20 on November 19 – 20; 24, 14, and 10 on November 21 – 23; 8 on November 24 – 25, and 5 on November 26 – 29.
F.K. Janda, OK1HH, filed this report.
The geomagnetic field will be:
- quiet on: October 16, November 5 – 7, 10 – 13
- quiet to unsettled on: October 17, 31, November 3, 14 – 16
- quiet to active on: October (18,) 19 – 20, 28 – 29, (30,) November (1, 4)
- unsettled to active: October 22, (24,) 27, November 2, 8 ( – 9)
- active to disturbed: October (21, 23,) 25 – 26
- Solar wind will intensify on October (20 – 21,) 22, (23 – 25,) 26 – 29, (30,) 31, November (2 – 3,) 4 – 5, (9 – 11).
Note: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”
Do you think the recent (or current) solar minimum is lasting a little too long? Check this contrarian view. Note the link Victor20-Sep23-SSN_Forecasts.tab toward the bottom of the page. It shows sunspot records and predictions from 1730 until 2101! I can’t explain the numbers or how they were derived.
Perhaps someone can help this programmer on Stack Overflow with his Python program for performing linear regression with a sunspot database.
On Thursday, October 15, on the local Puget Sound Repeater Group 146.96 MHz machine, I heard a couple of stations talking about gray-line, long-path propagation on 40 meters. After I inquired, Dean Holtan, N7XS of Camano Island, Washington wrote:
“On Wednesday, October 14, at 1530 UTC, I heard K6MYC and company working ZS6 stations. I also heard a station in the Netherlands, PA1A I believe. He was very loud along with the ZS6 stations, S-9 plus via long path.
“I was listening on my SDRplay RSPduo and a 160-meter loop at 100 feet. If I had gone to the shack I could have worked them. Thursday October 15, 20 meters was nicely open into Europe. KW7Y was working many G stations and EA short path at 1630 UTC. The above was all on phone.
“Last week on October 10 starting at 0130 UTC when I was on vacation, on 20 meters at our sunset I worked UN7JX and VU2MB along with many others in Asiatic Russia. I was called by a station in Lebanon but that was unsuccessful — all on FT8 running 500 W and my 160-meter loop at 100 feet from Camano Island, Washington.”
Doug Behl, VE3XDB, linking via internet from Kitchener, Ontario, later wrote:
“Many amateurs today complain about propagation. Conditions haven’t been great for several years, although there is some glimmer of hope that things may be getting better. Those experiencing the most frustration seem to be sideband operators. I have had some success over the past few years, using a couple of principles.
1. Use a mode that does better in poor conditions. These days, everyone jumps to FT8, a fantastic, low-power mode that does very well in poor conditions. However, I prefer a mode that creates a more traditional experience. CW and PSK31 are both very good modes for effective contacts when conditions are poor and may provide an opportunity to get to know the other operator a bit better.
2. Work the gray line. Gray-line propagation occurs at daybreak or at dusk. It is very interesting, because it occurs at a very particular time of day, opens up very quickly, and then, when time is up, it just disappears! Here is a short, interesting article on the science and experience of gray line propagation.
Following the above two principles, I have worked western and eastern Europe, the Caribbean and South America, as well as Oceania and Southeast Asia over the past few months, My modest station is a short, inverted L and an old Kenwood transceiver, usually running about 20 W and never more than 40 W. Best results have been achieved on 20, 30, and 40 meters.
To work the world when conditions are poor, I encourage others to try CW and PSK31, especially at dawn or at dusk. You may be surprised by the results achieved using a modest station. We need more operators in both of these modes!”
Ken Brown, N4SO wrote:
“Evidence pointed to a very good propagation path to Asiatic Russia, Japan, and to China on Saturday evening. From October 10, 2330 UTC, 21.074 MHZ, FT8: I first noticed UA0CA calling CQ from Asiatic Russia. It’s rare to see a UA0 on the screen, and so far I have never completed a contact. I have also never had completed a contact with China until Saturday evening.
“Calling UA0CA was noticed by BV1EK, China, and he called me and we were able to complete a contact. In this same period, I completed contacts with JA1FGX, JQ1CIV, and JG1SRB.
“A contact with UA0CA or with UA0ZK was not made, but I can appreciate the distance is roughly 5,000 miles away. I will try again on Sunday. Distance to UA0ZK, for example, is 5,391 miles.”
Sunspot numbers for October 8 – 14 were 0, 24, 26, 15, 15, 0, and 12, with a mean of 13.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 71.6, 73.1, 73.6, 72.9, 73.8, 72.3, and 74.5, with a mean of 73.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 2.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, and 0, with a mean of 1.9.
For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out K9LA’s Propagation Page.
A propagation bulletin archive is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.
Share your reports and observations.
SOURCE:ARRL
Review
AmateurLogic 121: Hamfests from Huntsville to Tokyo
In this episode, we cover a few new products and fun at Huntsville Hamfest and Tokyo Hamfair. Read more
Measuring Coaxial Cable Losses @ HF, VHF, and UHF frequencies.
Measuring Coaxial Cable Losses @ HF, VHF, and UHF frequencies. Read more
Retevis RT82 DMR Dual Band Handheld Radio – Review
Description RT82 is a dual band DMR radio Frequency band:136-174 & 400-480MHz 10000 Contacts IP67 Waterproof Use Time-Division Multiple-Acces... Read more
“This week I’m reviewing the Openspot by Shark RF. No images to hunt down, It runs D-Star, DMR & Fusion all in one box. Don’t fo... Read more
Is a Baofeng UV5R a Good SHTF Radio – Ham Radio Q&A
“Many in the prepper community believe that the inexpensive Chinese radios like the Baofeng UV5R handhelds are sufficient for emergency or disas... Read more
Equipment
The new mAT-705 Auto ATU for the Icom IC-705
Specifically built for the new Icom IC-705, the mAT-705 is the latest compact and fully portable Micro-ATU owered by an internal 9V dry battery! The a... Read more
Radio Shield RS-UV3
The HobbyPCB RS-UV3 radio module is a 144/220/450 MHz FM transceiver board. The RS-UV3 is a low cost transceiver solution for Packet Radio, repeaters,... Read more
XIEGU X6100 HF TRANSCEIVER | FULL MODE | SDR RADIO
X6100 is an ultra-portable shortwave transceiver. It adopts the SDR software radio platform architecture of excellent performance, which carries power... Read more
LimeSDR Mini
An open, full-duplex, USB stick radio for femtocells and more The LimeSDR Mini development board is a hardware platform for developing and prototyping... Read more
MFJ Digital SWR / Wattmeters – MFJ-845/847
MFJ-845/847 New MFJ Digital SWR/Wattmeters display Forward, Refelected Power, SWR and Battery life all in a single glance! Large 1/2” forward power d... Read more
Antenna
How-To: Splice Wire to NASA Standards
Developed during the heyday of the telegraph, the Lineman’s splice is designed for connections that will be under tension. It is commonly claimed that... Read more
The Yagi-Uda Antenna
A Yagi-Uda antenna, commonly known simply as a Yagi antenna, is a directional antenna consisting of multiple parallel dipole elements in a line,[1] us... Read more
SUPER VERTICAL 8 ULTRA HF 4-6-10-11*-12-15-17-20-30-4
Vertical-Array is proud to present the vertical 8-bands HF 8 “SV 8 ” antenna. The SV8 working in HF for 4-6-10-11-12-15-17-20-30-40... Read more
New AZEL1000CBWP – M2 Antenna
M2 Antenna New AZEL1000CBWP. Weatherproof version of our AZEL1000 pedestal in action with 200-500 MHz Log Periodic and 500-1000 MHz Helix antennas in... Read more
The most effective way to place a long wire antenna
The most effective way to place a long wire antenna Read more
App - Mobile
Free Digital Mode Android App
First Formal Release of AndFLMSG! AndFLMSG is a combination of Fldigi and Flmsg for portable devices running Android. The main objective of this devel... Read more
Look4Sat: Radio satellite tracker – APP
Ham radio and weather satellite tracker and passes predictor inspired by Gpredict Main features: – Calculating satellite passes for up to one week (16... Read more
US Amateur Radio Band Plan for Android
US Amateur Radio Band Plan A clean native app that’s sole purpose is to provide amateur radio operators a simple and easy to use f... Read more
SDR Touch demo on Android device using SDRplay RSP
This demonstrates turning an Android Tablet (or Android Phone) into a highly portable comms receiver or spectrum analyzer operating from Long Wave to... Read more
Wizkers:Radio APP
Wizkers:Radio is a controller for various Amateur Radio equipments. At the moment, it supports several Elecraft radios and amplifiers, as well as the... Read more