The K7RA Solar Update

Sunspots made a solid reappearance over this reporting week (June 4-10) with average daily sunspot number rising from 3.3 to 14. As expected, solar flux also increased, and the average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 69.6 to 71.3.

With renewed solar activity, so many radio amateurs staying home, and the increasing popularity of new weak signal modes, there is a lot happening on the air in amateur radio today.

Average daily planetary A index went from 6 to 5.1, while average daily middle latitude A index changed from 5.7 to 6.1.

The outlook for the next 45 days has solar flux at 72 on June 12-14, 70 on June 15-16, 68 on June 17-24, 70 on June 25-26, 72 on June 27 through July 11, 70 on July 12-13, 68 on July 14-21, 70 on July 22-23, and 72 on July 24-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 12 through July 3, then 8 and 12 on July 4-5, and 5 on July 6-26.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 12 to July 7, 2020 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be

quiet on June 16, 20, 23-25, July 1-4

quiet to unsettled on: June 12-14, 17-19, 21-22, 28-30, July 6

quiet to active on: (June 15, 26-27, July 5, 7)

unsettled to active on: nothing predicted

active to disturbed: nothing predicted

Solar wind will intensify on: June (16-17, 26-30,) July 5-7

Remarks:

– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

– The predictability of changes remains lower as there are very few

indications.

KD6JUI reports, “Saturday, June 6, was a good day for operating with 10 watts and a short vertical dipole from a small pedal boat on Pine Mountain Lake in northern California. Around 2 PM local time I heard an Argentinian CW station coming in loud and clear on 15 meters, then was able to work JR7TKG using SSB on 17 meters. Quite amazing.”

A new solar cycle prediction method, the Sun Clock. https://bit.ly/2AlwjWy

KZ1W reported 6-meter openings to an email list for the Western Washington DX Club on June 10, “Terrific opening to New England this afternoon. Only missed Rhode Island. N7QT was hammering them also. No DX, but this was great.”

Joe, KC8RAN, reported from Waxahachie, Texas, also on June 10, “Normally I don’t work 6 meters, but decided to check it out today. On WSJT-X there were a few stations on around 1530Z, so I gave it a whirl. I was able to contact VE3OTL with reasonable reports of -08db (his) and -09db (mine), just before the band closed on my end. Going from EM12 just south of Dallas, Texas to EN76 in Canada (around 1150 miles) was quite a surprise, considering I was using my G5RV Jr antenna as an inverted U 25 feet high in the attic. While I was unable to complete the contact with N2CB in nearby EN75, it was nice to see I can do the magic band. Time to build that 6-meter antenna!”

Rich Zwirko, K1HTV, reported on June 8: “In the past 2 days the 6-meter band has shown us in the Mid-Atlantic area some more magic. On Sunday, June 7 there were two multi-hour 50 MHz DX openings from Europe and the islands off Western Africa to the western edge of FM18ap in Virginia. The first opening ran from 1525Z to 1830Z with FT8 mode stations worked on 6-meters in CT3, DL, EA, EA8, EI, F, G, I, ON and PA.

“Joe Taylor, K1JT reported on the WSJT-X Development Group reflector that on June 7, in just 44 minutes, using the FT4 mode, he made 39 DX contacts using the FT4 mode on 50.318 MHz.

“The second opening on June 7 into this area ran from 2045 to 2345Z. During this session, FT8 stations in CT, EA, EI, F, G, GW, IS0 and PA were worked. The countries best represented in the June 7 log were Spain (15), France (13), UK (8) and Canary Islands (7). A total 67 FT8 DX contacts were logged on Sunday, June 7. Most were made on 50.313 MHz.

“I went down to the shack early Monday, June 8, after seeing spots for European stations from some W3 land stations located about 100 miles northeast of my location. I began seeing weak decodes before 1100Z. Between 1100 and 1200Z I worked 8 stations in YU, LZ and 9A. At the start of the 1200Z hour I added FT8 QSOs with G, SV, HA. The first of two exciting moments came when I called and worked TA1BM in Turkey for my 6-meter DXCC country #162.

“The second big surprise occurred at 1314z when I completed an FT8 contact with OD5KU in Lebanon for 6-meter country #163.

“As I write this email near the end of the June 8 UTC day, 51 DX stations in 20 countries have been worked today, including 9A, CN, CU, EA, EA6, EA8, EA9, G, GU, HA, I, J7, LZ, OD, SV, TA, VE, YO, YU and I even worked a KB3 who answered my ‘CQ DX’ call from Maryland. Thirty-six of the 51 FT8 contacts were on 50.313 MHz. Fifteen FT8 contacts were on 50.323 MHz. I heard no activity on the 50.318 FT frequency.

”That’s it for Sunday and today. I wonder what the Magic Band will serve up next. I hope that in the days and weeks to come, DX propagation that we enjoyed in the eastern US will soon be experienced by stations farther west in the country.”

Dick, K2KA, reported from Westford, Massachusetts on June 8: “Today from 1000z to now (1924z) 6-meters has been open to Europe, Africa, and the Caribbean from here FN42.

“With my bent M2 6M5XHP antenna (thanks to a tornado on May 15) at 40 feet I worked four new countries (ZB2GI, Z32KF, TA1BM and J35X) and printed 5 more (OD5KU and ET, 6W1TA, 4X4DK, A92HK, 5B60AIF). At 1916z I worked J35X. This is the longest I have ever seen the Magic Ban” open.

“Concerning the tornado, it caused a tree to fall on my barn and 6-meter beam and bent a few elements (D1 is badly bent), but the antenna still loads. Another twenty or so large pines (2 feet or more in diameter) came down and took out my 160-meter Inverted L antenna, my G5RV antenna, and damaged my AS G5RV. The G5RVs made by Davis RF did not themselves break, but the rope holding them up did. The wind was estimated to be 120 MPH. I took pictures of the devastation, but they just don’t do it justice. It cost $3800 to cut up and remove the trees.

“Soon I will be replacing the M2 5-element beam with the M2 6M7JHV 7-elment on a 30-foot boom. I sure wish I had that up today!”

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 4 through 10, 2020 were 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 14, and 11, with a mean of 14. 10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 71.1, 71.6, 71.6, 71, 72.4, and 71, with a mean of 71.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 9, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 10, 6, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.

Source:ARRL