Cycle 25 sunspots persisted for the first two days (January 9-10) of this reporting week, January 9-15, with daily sunspot numbers of 14 and 11. That brought the weekly average daily sunspot number from 8.4 last week to 3.6. Average daily solar flux edged up from 71.8 to 72.5.
Average daily planetary A index declined from 6.3 to 5.6, and average middle latitude A index went from 5.3 to 3.7.
Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 and 71 on January 17-18, 70 on January 19 through February 7, 72 on February 8-22, and 70 on February 23 through March 1.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 17-18, 8 on January 19-20, 5 on January 21-31, 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3, 10 on February 4-6, 5 on February 7-9, 10 on February 10-11, 5 on February 12-22, 8 on February 23-24, 5 on February 25-27, 8 on February 28-29 and 5 on March 1.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 17 until February 12, 2020 by F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: January 18, 29-30, February 6-9
Quiet to unsettled on: January 19-21, 24-28, February 1, 4-5, 10-11
Quiet to active on: (January 17, 22-23, 31, February 2-3, 12)
No unsettled to active periods predicted.
No active to disturbed periods predicted.
Solar wind will intensify on: January (17, 22-24,) February 2 (-5)
Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
The predictability of changes is lower again
N8II wrote, concerning his report in last week’s bulletin, “I forgot to mention that the January 9 contact with LA5MIA was on 20-meter SSB vs the Es contacts on 10 meters.”
Also, from Jon Jones, N0JK, “Jeff, N8II, mentioned conditions on 160 meters in the Stew Perry contest ‘January 28-29.’ I am sure he meant December 28-29, 2019. (https://www.kkn.net/stew/stew_rules.html) His 10-meter Es reports correlate with the 6-meter Es occurring. I’m hoping for more winter Es.”
Jon Jones, N0JK noted in an email titled “more corrections”: “I made some boo-boos, too. K1SIX is in grid FN43. KN4NN is in grid EM70.”
N0JK shared late on January 16: “Six-meter Es seemed to vanish after the strong openings the second week of January. A brief Es opening between Florida and Ohio was noted January 13 around 1800z by KD4ESV in EL87, KW4BY in EL96, and others. AA5B operated MSK144 meteor scatter January 15 from rare grid DM63. The January VHF contest this weekend.”
It seems we have crossed a threshold. Though solar activity remains low, recent history shows no Cycle 24 sunspots, only Cycle 25 activity. I remain optimistic. Also, with historically low geomagnetic activity, this is a great time to enjoy 160 meters.
Here is the latest video from WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/389wQWI
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at email@example.com.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for January 9 through 15, 2020 were 14, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 74.4, 72.8, 73.5, 71.9, 71.5, 71.9, and 71.2, with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 7, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.7.
MTR-4B V2 Photos COMING SOON “The Mountain Topper” The LnR Precision MTR transceivers are designed to be efficient portable CW rigs. Whether climbing... Read more
NanoVNA SAA2 Version 2 Vector Network Analyzer – Ham Radio Antenna Analyzer Read more
144 MHz signal from the Faroe Islands heard 3000kms away in Bulgaria during Geminid Meteor Shower – Dec 2020
Every year, the Geminid meteor shower peaks around the 14th of December and many VHF radio amateurs make contacts by bouncing signals off the meteor t... Read more
The QYT KT-780 Plus is a 100 watt mobile radio on the 2 meter Amateur Radio Band, and works on FM mode. Today we will walk through the menu of the rad... Read more
Hot on the heels of the last post about the 5400km TEP opening on 144 MHz between Argentina and the island of Aruba, we have details of some more cont... Read more
“In a bizzare warning issued by the FCC and followed by a warning from the Association for Amateur Radio, The ARRL, ham are warned on a Sunday m... Read more
Full Title: Warning: Amateur and Personal Radio Services Licensees and Operators May Not Use Radio Equipment to Commit or Facilitate Criminal Act... Read more
Here is a brief information release regarding Radio SL8SUB, the 1st Submarine Flotillas official military amateur radio call sign: The 1st Submarine F... Read more
Firmware update for the IC-705, IC-7300 and IC-9700* offers smoother FT8 operation. One touch FT8 mode preset, Scroll mode and other updates for each... Read more