Two new sunspot groups appeared this week, on two consecutive days, each lasting for only a day, with a daily sunspot number of 11 and 13 on Friday and Saturday of last week, just in time for ARRL CW Sweepstakes. Both sunspot groups had a magnetic polarity signature indicating Solar Cycle 25 and appeared after 4 weeks of no sunspots.
Spaceweather.com reported both appearances as region AR2750, yet NOAA reported a new sunspot group on each day, shown as a one in the New Regions column: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
Perhaps that is true, and the new appearances on each day were both counted as part of AR2750.
Solar flux was higher over the past reporting week (Thursday through Wednesday, October 31 through November 6) with average daily solar flux rising from 68.5 to 70.4.
Average solar flux as reported in this bulletin hasn’t been as high since ARLP020, back in May, when it was 75.7: http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP020/2019. Note there were sunspots during that week also.
Geomagnetic indicators were low this week, with average daily planetary A index declining from 16.4 to 4.1, and average mid-latitude A index softening from 13 to 2.7.
Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 8, 68 on November 9-15, 67 on November 16-19, 68 and 70 on November 20-21, 71 on November 22-30, 70 on December 1-6, 69 on December 7-19, and 70 on December 20-22.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 8-9, then 10, 12 and 8 on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-19, then 15, 25, 18, 12 and 10 on November 20-24, 8 on November 25-26, 5 on November 27 through December 16, then 15, 20, and 18, on December 17-19, 12 on December 20-21 and 5 on December 22.
At ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ NOAA reported a solar flux forecast of 96 for December 16-18 in their predictions on their November 1-5 forecasts, but when I asked about this they told me that the US Air Force had transposed digits from 69 to 96. By the November 6 forecast, this was all corrected. Drat! I was hoping for those higher numbers. My contact at NOAA told me he wished the flux would be 96, or even better, 196!
Even during days with no sunspots, there was notable HF propagation recently, with the Pitcairn Island expedition making HF contacts across the Americas, even on 10 meters.
F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 8 until December 3, 2019.
Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: November 13, 18-19, 29-30, December 1
quiet to unsettled on: November 8-9, 11, 15, 27-28
quiet to active on: November 10, 12, 14, 16-17, 25-26, December 2-3
unsettled to active on: November 20, 24
active to disturbed: November 21-23
Solar wind will intensify on November (8-9,) 13, 21-26, (27-29)
Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
Stevie, MI0GTA, commented from Ireland on November 4 about working DX, even with low solar activity. “I thought you might like to know I worked 15 new DXCC countries on 15 meters during the CQWW CW DX Contest, Chile, India, South Africa, Afghanistan were some of the best I worked.
“I use an M0PLK delta loop antenna at 11 meters above ground with 350 W from my old Yaesu FL2100Z amp. The rig is an Icom Pro-III. Even today I worked WQ7X in Phoenix, Arizona.” Check out Stevie’s QRZ.com page for details on his collection of ham radio related maps.
David Moore sent this, on an overlooked piece of the solar dynamo puzzle, a particular form of magnetic instability: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191028104142.htm
Here is the latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/Rm520CkqoLM
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for October 31 through November 6, 2019 were 0, 11, 13, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 70.7, 70.7, 69.4, 70.8, 70.4, and 69.3, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, and 4, with a mean of 2.7.
Source:ARRL
Review
Ham Radio vs CB
Ham Radio vs CB, Citizen’s Band Radio – Ham Radio compared to CB frequencies and modes – which ones is better? Today let’s tal... Read more
Ham Radio Forms a Planet-Sized Space Weather Sensor Network
The article “Ham Radio Forms a Planet-Sized Space Weather Sensor Network,” appeared on February 9 in Eos, Earth & Space Science News — an American... Read more
SCU-LAN10 with FTdx101 / FTdx10 Overview
SCU-LAN10 with FTdx101 / FTdx10 Overview Read more
RFI NOISELOOP Portable Receive Antenna
RFI NOISELOOP Portable Receive Antenna Read more
An Aircraft Tale That Applies to Ham Radio
An Aircraft Tale That Applies to Ham Radio Read more
How Antenna Traps Work
How Antenna Traps Work Read more
Make a mains filter for EMC & noise reduction
This video shows how I have made a mains filter that is extremely effective in reducing and in some cases eliminating completely EMC from the electric... Read more
VHF
Ham Radio vs GMRS
Ham Radio vs GMRS – Ham Radio compared to GMRS frequencies and modes – which ones is better? Today let’s talk about both of them, ho... Read more
Best GMRS Handheld Radio 2021 – GMRS Radio Comparison
Best GMRS Handheld Radio 2021 – GMRS Radio Comparison Read more
New Arrival! Dual Mode Portable Repeater RT97P
Dual Mode Portable Repeater RT97P will come. It is similar to the portable repeater RT97. Now we have the RT97 GMRS band, and this RT97P is the d... Read more
ARISS and Partners Are Investigating Space Station Ham Radio Failure
Amateur Radio on the International Space Station (ARISS) and its partners are troubleshooting a failure within the on-board NA1SS amateur station in t... Read more
CHESS CubeSat Constellation to Carry FUNcube Transponders
In 2020, a project between AMSAT-UK, AMSAT-NL, and Swiss universities got under way with the aim of equipping two Swiss satellites — for now under the... Read more
The First Thing To Upgrade On Your Handheld Ham Radio
It’s true that the best thing to upgrade on your ham radio handheld is its antenna. However, there is something you should do before making that anten... Read more
AMSAT/Vanderbilt RadFXSat-2/Fox 1E Set to Launch
Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne is a go for launch on Wednesday, January 13, at 1500 UTC, carrying the AMSAT/Vanderbilt RadFXSat-2/Fox-1E CubeSat into spac... Read more
Equipment
Radioddity Raddy RW3 Go-Kit-Type Radio AM/FM/WX, Phone Charger and More
Radioddity Raddy RW3 Go-Kit-Type Radio AM/FM/WX, Phone Charger and More [Small Size But All-Purpose] Unlike other FM/AM/NOAA radios, the RW3 is a Blue... Read more
PANADAPTER For Any Radio DC – 160 MHz SDR Antenna Switch
PANADAPTER For Any Radio DC – 160 MHz SDR Antenna Switch Read more
Yaesu M-70 | Desktop Microphone
The Yaesu M-70 is a new desk top microphone from Yaesu, it is ideal for the new FT-DX10 model but will function with other Yaesu Models. More info so... Read more
New! Wattmeter HF/50 MHz FX773 3/5 kWatt
Technical Features VECTOR SWR/POWER METER METROPWR FX773Coverage 1.8/55 MHz 160/6mtHF/55MHz Measure Power AVG, PeP, dBm, R, Z, |X| , SWR, FrequencyWid... Read more
PA500 ultra-compact RF amplifier with tuner
PA500 linear amplifier with integrated automatic antenna tuner for your next adventure.The complete solution to conquer limitations unique form-factor... Read more
Yaesu FTdx3000 Discontinued
In recent news, Yaesu announced they have discontinued production of the FTdx3000 and FTdx5000 HF amateur transceivers. In our livestream excerpt we t... Read more
Icom AH-705 Announced on Christmas
AH-705 HF/50 MHz Automatic Antenna Tuner Features Covers the 1.8 MHz to 50 MHz bands, using a long wire element 2-way power sources using alkaline bat... Read more