On October 15 at 2345 UTC, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning, which said that continued strengthening of the solar wind stream due to coronal hole effect may lead to isolated periods of minor geomagnetic storms on October 16.
Sunspot numbers during the October 8-14 reporting period were nearly the same as during the previous 7 days. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 37 to 36.9, and average daily solar flux dropped from 93.8 to 87.5
As in previous solar cycles, geomagnetic indicators are high as the cycle trends downward after the peak.
Go to the bottom of WM7D’s Solar Resource Page and note the graph for Ap (planetary A index) progression. If you look at the graph just above that for solar flux, see how the Ap index is high after the peak of solar flux or sunspot numbers.
From last week to this week, average daily planetary A index went from 24.3 to 25.1, and average mid-latitude A index moved from 15.7 to 17.6.
Predicted solar flux is 105 on October 16; 110 on October 17; 120 on October 18-21; 115 on October 22-23; 120 on October 24; 125 on October 25-26; then 130, 120, and 110 on October 27-29; 100, 90, and 85 on October 30-November 1; 80 on November 2-6; 85 on November 7-8, and 90 on November 9-11. Solar flux then rises to 130 on November 23 and drops below 100 after November 26.
Predicted planetary A index is 18, 15, and 12 on October 16-18; 8 on October 19-20; 5 on October 21-27; then 8, 12, and 10 on October 28-30; 8 on October 31-November 2; 20 on November 3; 15 on November 4-5; then 12, 8, 20, 15, and 18 on November 6-10; 20 on November 11-12; 15 on November 13, and 8 on November 14-18.
OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group says to expect a quiet to active geomagnetic field on October 16-17, quiet to unsettled on October 18, mostly quiet October 19-20, quiet to unsettled October 21, quiet on October 22-26, mostly quiet October 27, quiet to unsettled October 28-30, quiet to active October 31 through November 1, active to disturbed November 2-5, quiet to unsettled November 6, quiet to active November 7-9, and quiet to unsettled November 10-11.
David Moore sent this from Space.com. “The sun has sprung a leak. A hole in the topmost layer of the sun and its magnetic field, the size of 50 Earths, is letting loose an ultrafast solar wind that has kicked off several nights of auroras down on Earth.”
Spaceweather.com has posted an image of the huge coronal hole.You can click on the image to zoom in. The white lines represent magnetic lines of force. Currentimages of the sun at various wavelengths are on the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly website.
The ARRL Technical Information Service has more information concerning radio propagation. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see thearticle, “What the Numbers Mean, and Propagation Predictions — a brief introduction to propagation and the major factors affecting it,” by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. An archive of past propagation bulletins is available. K9LA has information and tutorials on propagation on his website.
My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux andplanetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format. Click on “Download this file” to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.
Monthly propagation charts between four US regions and 12 overseas locations are also available on the ARRL website, as are instructions for starting or ending e-mail distribution of ARRL bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for October 8 through 14 were 24, 11, 22, 36, 51, 58, and 56, with a mean of 36.9. The 10.7 cm flux was 79.7, 81.2, 81.4, 84.6, 89.1, 95.6, and 100.7, with a mean of 87.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 56, 26, 12, 12, 22, 25, and 23, with a mean of 25.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 41, 15, 9, 8, 16, 18, and 16, with a mean of 17.6.
Source: ARRL
There are no ads, please add some
Product Description MEF-330-1K Multi Band End Fed Half Wave Antenna This is an End-Fed Half Wave antenna (EFHW) resonant on 8 amateur bands. ... Read more
The bhi ParaPro EQ20 product range features a 20W modular audio power amplifier with a parametric equaliser plus the option of having bhi’s latest dua... Read more
The North American QSO Party are favorites of beginners and seasoned operators alike. The NAQPs are low-power only (no amplifiers allow... Read more
NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 4th and 5th to 65% as a stream of solar wind approaches Earth. The h... Read more
The CD-45II handles 8.5 sq. feet mounted inside a tower, or 5 sq. ft. with mast adapter. Low temperature grease good to -30 F degrees. Bell rotator de... Read more
This video is a portion of a video we made for the 20th Anniversary of the National Association of Tower Erectors. You can see the complete video here... Read more
The California QSO Party (CQP) is held every year on the first weekend of October. The first CQP took place in 1966. Since 1974, the Northern Califor... Read more
By TAYLOR STUCK LAVALETTE – Robert Fischer sees the world differently than most. When his wife injured her foot a few months ago, she had to be... Read more
WLW (700 AM) – branded Newsradio 700 WLW – is a commercial news/talk radio station serving Greater Cincinnati. Owned by iHeartMedia, WLW is a 50,000-w... Read more
Amateur Radio on the International Space Station (ARISS) is celebrating the life and accomplishments of astronaut, scientist, and Amateur Radio pionee... Read more
“The fastest way to learn a new language? Obviously by playing it! 😀 What’s up everyone, here’s you the fascinating Morse Cod... Read more
It’s not too early to be thinking about Field Day 2016 and planning your club’s strategy for a bigger score and greater participation than last year.... Read more
Radio Amateurs in Canada are poised to join those in several other nations around the world who have access to a new 60-meter band, 5351.5 – 5366.5 kH... Read more
Buddipole Deluxe Antenna Review This is the testing and review of the Buddipole Deluxe antenna available at Buddipole.com. The Buddipole™ Deluxe Packa... Read more
The ARRL September VHF Contest gets underway on September 12 at 1800 UTC and wraps up on September 14 at 0259 UTC. This operating event provides a cha... Read more
Recent Posts
MEF-330-1K Multi Band End Fed Half Wave Antenna
Professional Grade Audio Equalisation for Amateur Radio
Rules: 2015 North American QSO Party
MAGNETIC STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEK
CD-45II METERED ROTATOR W/FRICTION BRAKE 8.5 SF MT N TOWER
![Above the Sky [ Video ]](https://qrznow.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/TOWER-265x168.jpg)
Above the Sky [ Video ]
California QSO Party (CQP)
Lifelong love of technology has local man doing unique projects
WLW’s 500,000 Watt Transmitter and Super Tower
ARISS Owen Garriott Commemorative SSTV Event Under Way
![Vadrum Speaks Morse Code [ Video]](https://qrznow.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/morse_code1-265x168.jpg)
Vadrum Speaks Morse Code [ Video]
ARRL 2016 Field Day Packet is Now Available, New Bonus Point Categories Announced
Radio Amateurs in Canada to Get New 100 W 5 MHz Allocation
Review and test of Buddipole Deluxe Antenna
The ARRL September VHF Contest Beckons!
Warning: file_get_contents(https://plusone.google.com/_/+1/fastbutton?url=https%3A%2F%2Fqrznow.com%2Fthe-k7ra-solar-update-10162015%2F): failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.0 404 Not Found in /home/qrznow/public_html/wp-content/themes/goodnews5/framework/functions/posts_share.php on line 151
![DR9A – VHF – UHF – Super Contest station [ Video ]](https://qrznow.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DR9A-90x60.jpg)
![DR9A – VHF – UHF – Super Contest station [ Video ]](https://qrznow.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DR9A-180x120.jpg)
