Geomagnetic Storm Warning for Nov. 2-3

NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on November 2-3 when a fast-moving stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field

MONSTER SUNSPOT: So you thought Halloween was over? Think again. There is a monster spot on the sun. AR2443 has more than quadrupled in size since it first appeared on Oct. 29th, and it now stretches more than 175,000 km from end to end. Philippe Tosi took this picture of the active region on Nov. 1st from his backyard observatory in Nîmes, France:

By JIM THOMAS —

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a 48 hour magnetic storm watch indicating a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or a high speed solar wind stream emanating from the Sun may be heading towards Earth. These fast moving charged particles can cause a Northern Lights display.

The watch begins at the time indicated above. It should be noted that the beginning of the storm watch does not necessarily predict the arrival time of the aurora-causing particles, rather it indicates that, within that 48 hour period, increased activity is expected. Real-time Aurora Borealis forecasts can be obtained at the Aurora Borealis Forecast page at Soft Serve News.

Big Auroras often happen without warning.
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It is somewhat rare that NOAA issues a storm watch of this magnitude. NOAA estimates the CME or a high speed solar wind stream currently headed towards Earth might produce a Kp number of 7 (Strong) during the first 24 hours and a Kp number of 6 (Moderate) during the second 24 hours, but that’s never fully known until it hits Earth.

It should be noted that storm watches sometimes turn out not to be as strong as advertised. Aurora watchers will have to wait and see.

Stronger CMEs can sometimes cause trouble for satellites and create problems with electrical grids by inducing currents as the CME cloud interacts with the magnetic field that surrounds the earth. It is this disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field that causes the Northern Lights. NOAA indicates that power system voltage irregularities may occur. In addition increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Also, intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range errors, may occur.

The Northern Lights, also known as the Aurora Borealis, can range from a faint green glow on the northern horizon to a multicolored, full-sky display which can be one of the most beautiful and awe-inspiring scenes in nature.

Read Jim’s article and see a chart showing the KP number needed for an aurora to be visible in your part of the British Isles or Europe
http://www.softservenews.com/en/aurora-borealis-breaking-news/aurora-storm-watch-300088.htmlListen for Auroral Propagation in the Amateur Radio 50, 70 and 144 MHz bands
http://rsgb.org/main/technical/propagation/auroal-propagation/

Aurora Watch
http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/alerts
http://www.twitter.com/aurorawatchuk

Space Weather
http://spaceweather.com/