The Sun’s activity has increased dramatically this week firing two M-class flares and about half a dozen smaller flares over the past several days. The new region causing this activity has been growing very rapidly, but now seems to be calming back down. Although no solar storms have been launched, we are watching this region carefully as it enters the Earth-strike zone. Amateur radio operators and GPS users should be prepared for disruptions on the day side of the planet.
This is a short forecast that focuses on the ham radio and GPS communities. Look for a new full forecast that includes the aurora possibilities in the next few days.
For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter:
For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.
Solar Imaging and Analysis:
STEREO-EUVI + SDO-AIA 360° Heliographic Maps: http://tcrb.nrl.navy.mil/~iuu/maps360…
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest…
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/lat…
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xra…
NOAA Sunspot Classifications: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/
GONG Magnetic Maps: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw…
Wang-Sheeley-Arge Solar Wind Prediction Model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ws/
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSy…
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag…
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
POES Auroral Global Maps: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_…
Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/index…
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/
NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://terra2.spacenvironment.net/~ra…
HAARP Data Meters: http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/
Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.
Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
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